In early July, Tavistock Institut Germany (TIG) brought together partners from across the EU-ALMPO project to explore one of the core methodological components of Work Package 7: developing a shared Theory of Change.
Over two online sessions held on 4th and 8th July 2025, around 20 participants joined each workshop, representing all eight core partner organisations. The workshops created a space for us to reflect together on what issues the project is trying to address, what it is seeking to achieve, our assumption about how change is expected to happen, and what challenges we need to keep in mind along the way.
Why a Theory of Change?
The Theory of Change process is about making explicit the assumptions that underpin the EU-ALMPO project and its intended impacts and outcomes. It helps us move beyond a list of project activities to show how our combined resources, tools and collaborations are expected to lead to real-world outcomes and impacts. It also provides a framework for evaluation, ensuring we can track not only what we produce but also what difference it makes. This is important because the Theory of Change allows us not only to explore the links between our project activities and their impacts, but also the links along the underpinning causal chain between the former and the latter.
This approach is very much in line with the European Commission’s Better Regulation Guidelines (2021) and Toolbox (2023).[1] As they postulate, the starting point for an evaluation is the intervention logic which describes how and why a desired change is expected to happen.
What did we discuss?
Partners identified several issues the project can help to address, including:
- persistent skills mismatches and labour market polarisation
- weak connections between training providers and employers
- fragmented systems and poor communication between policy levels, providers, and end users
- the need to strengthen data governance
- low capacity and limited understanding among agency staff of how to use AI effectively.
At the same time, we acknowledged there are wider challenges outside our control – from the rapid pace of AI development to legal restrictions on the use of AI in some countries, and the influence of political priorities on policy decisions. However, it was recognised that the project would need to monitor these as they can impact on the success and sustainability of the project tools.
We also explored the outcomes and impacts we want the project to achieve: more evidence-based policymaking, better alignment of training with employer demand, improved support for vulnerable groups, and ultimately more adaptive and resilient labour market systems.
Barriers and assumptions
The discussions were open and honest about potential barriers. We all agreed that building high quality AI tools alone will not guarantee their use – adoption depends on trust, capacity and motivation. We must also ensure the AI tools remain up to date, since outdated data could quickly reduce their relevance. Other challenges include legal constraints, uneven digital maturity across Europe, and the need to manage risks of bias and discrimination in AI.
Underpinning the Theory of Change are key assumptions – that policymakers will act on evidence, that users can develop the skills needed to use the tools effectively, and that trust can be built both in the technology and in the institutions that deploy it.
What’s next?
From these conversations, the TIG team has started to map a causal chain showing how EU-ALMPO resources and activities lead to outcomes and impacts. This will continue to evolve as the project progresses. It will be used to produce an updated draft of the project Theory of Change and also provide the backbone for our evaluation framework in Work Package 7. The initial Theory of Change and causal chain will be shared with project partners in September and discussed with them at our next partners’ meeting in October in Gdansk – as we seek both their feedback and their active and ongoing involvement in the evaluation process from the start.
The workshops underlined the value of bringing the consortium together to think through the “big picture” of EU-ALMPO. By sharing perspectives, testing assumptions, and debating challenges, we feel better placed to make sure the project delivers tools and insights that are not only innovative but also relevant, trusted and sustainable.