By: Eugenia Atin, Project Manager at Prospektiker‑LKS
Guest contribution prepared for the EU-ALMPO project.
This article was written by Eugenia Atin, Project Manager at Prospektiker-LKS. The EU-ALMPO consortium warmly thanks her for contributing her time and expertise to the project’s knowledge-sharing activities.
In recent years, those involved in the design and implementation of public employment policies have shared a growing sense that traditional frameworks are no longer sufficient to respond to the speed and depth of change in today’s labour markets. Anticipation has become a practical necessity rather than a theoretical exercise. In the field of employment, this need is particularly evident: labour markets are being shaped by simultaneous transitions (technological, demographic, ecological and productive) that challenge conventional forms of public intervention.
Against this backdrop, active labour market policies (ALMPs) are undergoing a profound transformation in both Spain and the Basque Country. Beyond recent legislative changes, this process reflects a broader shift in paradigm: moving away from reactive policies designed to address problems once they have already emerged, towards anticipatory, evidence‑based policies capable of assessing impacts, learning from experience and adapting over time.
This article examines this transformation from a strategic perspective, focusing on three key elements that are emerging as central to the new model of employment policy: foresight, evaluation, and advanced information systems as foundations for policy design and continuous improvement.
Foresight and employment policy: looking ahead to act today
The integration of foresight into employment policy design represents a qualitative shift in how public authorities engage with labour market dynamics. In practice, foresight applied to employment is not simply about projecting data forward. It involves identifying emerging innovations, observing signals that are not yet dominant, and asking what effects (positive or negative) these developments may have on specific sectors, occupations and groups of people.
Unlike more traditional approaches, strategic foresight is characterised by:
- a long‑term perspective,
- the identification of disruptive trends and weak signals,
- analysis of the potential impacts of different trajectories,
- and a clear orientation towards decision‑making in the present.
When applied to employment and training, this perspective becomes especially valuable. It enables anticipation of the vulnerability of certain occupations to technological change, helps identify future‑critical skills, reveals opportunities linked to emerging activities and professions, and sheds light on labour market mismatches arising from population ageing or declining competitiveness in particular sectors.
Foresight is also, by nature, a participatory process. It combines expert knowledge with dialogue among institutions, social partners and the productive fabric of the territory. In doing so, it not only prepares territories for change, but also the people who live and work in them, embedding long‑term thinking into planning and management processes.
Evaluating impacts to innovate: from accountability to institutional learning
Alongside foresight, evaluation has become a structural element of the new model of active labour market policies. Spain’s Employment Act 3/2023 and the Spanish Strategy for Active Support to Employment 2025–2028 introduce systematic evaluation as a legal requirement for the first time.
This reflects a redefinition of the role of evaluation in public policy. Based on accumulated experience in analysing employment and training programmes, one recurring conclusion stands out: many well‑intentioned policy designs fail to deliver the expected results. Evaluation makes it possible to identify gaps between objectives, implementation and outcomes, creating spaces to address and correct them.
In complex policy areas such as employment and training, evaluation thus becomes the foundation for public innovation. It supports programme adjustment, intervention redesign, prioritisation of strategic investments and the discontinuation of measures that do not generate the desired effects. Policy improvement no longer depends solely on major legislative reforms, but on an ongoing process of learning and adaptation.
This shift is particularly relevant in contexts of limited resources and growing social demands. Rigorous evaluation is a necessary condition for directing public decision‑making towards interventions that generate greater social value.
Transformation in the Basque Country: anticipation, governance and a territorial approach
In the Basque Country, this paradigm shift is embodied in a reinforced policy framework shaped by the Basque Employment Act 15/2023 and the updated Basque Employment Strategy 2030. Together, these instruments consolidate a model that combines subjective rights, strategic planning and collaborative governance among institutions and territorial stakeholders.
The Basque strategy explicitly recognises the need to anticipate labour market transformations, aligning employment and training policies with the challenges posed by digitalisation, the green transition, demographic ageing and the development of strategic sectors.
A distinctive feature of this approach is its strong territorial anchoring. The deployment of employment networks, sectoral forums and multi‑level coordination spaces allows policies to be tailored to the specific characteristics of the local productive fabric, enabling responses that are better aligned with the real needs of people and businesses.
Information systems for anticipating the future of work
Effective anticipation depends to a large extent on the existence of robust information systems capable of integrating data, analytical models and medium‑ and long‑term projections. In this field, systems based on econometric modelling and foresight analysis have become key tools for public policy formulation.
In the Basque Country, the development of forward‑looking employment information systems (such as Lanbide’s FutureLan) enables estimates of future demand for occupations and skills, analysis of occupational trends, assessment of the impact of workforce ageing and anticipation of the effects of technological change on sectors and professions.
These tools do not eliminate uncertainty, nor should they seek to do so. Rather, they help structure it. They provide technical support for discussing priorities, testing hypotheses and making more informed decisions in complex and rapidly changing environments. In this way, information moves beyond a purely descriptive function to play a strategic role in anticipatory planning.
Convergences and challenges: consolidating learning policies
Both the national and Basque models converge around key elements: a rights‑based approach, personalised pathways, strengthened training and reskilling, systematic evaluation and improved governance. However, the main challenge is not regulatory, but operational and cultural.
Consolidating forward‑looking active labour market policies requires strengthening technical capacities, embedding foresight and evaluation into routine planning processes, and fostering an institutional culture that values learning and anticipation.
Conclusion
Recent transformations in active labour market policies reflect a profound shift in how public intervention is conceived. In the face of uncertainty, foresight, evaluation and advanced information systems are becoming essential tools for designing more effective, inclusive and resilient policies.
Preparing for the future of work is neither a closed nor a linear task. It requires observation, evaluation, adjustment and renewed reflection. In this ongoing process, foresight, evaluation and information systems are not ends in themselves, but key enablers for building stronger and more adaptive employment policies.
About the author
Eugenia Atin is a labour market expert specialising in foresight, strategic planning, and research on employment, skills, and education systems. She holds a degree in Telecommunications Engineering and currently serves as Project Manager at Prospektiker-LKS Next, where she has led projects for public administrations and private organisations since 2011.
She also coordinates the AI Working Group of the European Network on Regional Labour Market Monitoring and contributes as a national expert to European initiatives such as the EU Intelligence Hub of Cedefop and Eurostat.